4:56 PM Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Isolated to scattered showers are likely in the Northland this evening, Wednesday and again Thursday as a new upper-level trough digs southeast into the upper Midwest while another upper trough lifts northeast of the southern Plains. The two troughs will merge over the Midwest on Thursday before this whole system exits off to the east on Friday. At the surface will see an area of low pressure deepen to around 986mb as it lifts northeast out of east Texas on Wednesday reaching southern lower Michigan by late Thursday afternoon.
Looking ahead: It Looks like Friday, most of Saturday and Sunday will be mostly dry in the Northland, but there could be some showers around Saturday night into early Sunday morning as another disturbance moves through the region. Rain chances look to return again for next week.
The chances for isolated to scattered showers will be greatest during the afternoon and evening on both Wednesday and Thursday, and a few showers are also likely this evening.
HRRR model simulated radar forecast through Midnight Thursday.
Rainfall totals of just a trace to as much as a quarter inch are possible in the Northland through Thursday night.
Some weak CAPE (instability) will be found over the Northland Wednesday and again on Thursday with values <200 J/kg, but this could be just enough to produce a rumble or two of thunder in the stronger showers especially Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, but overall, the chances for thunderstorms are fairly low.
Looks like will see the pattern reload again next week as another trough sets up across the Rockies. This trough will likely move out onto the Plains and upper Midwest sometime next week and will more than likely see a pretty strong low also lift north/east out of the Rockies sometime next week. The result from all this is for another potential for some rain in the Northland next week.
Finally, some milder temperatures in the Twin Ports today thanks to a wind shift out of the west along with some sunshine which helped to boost temperatures into the middle to upper 50s in Duluth today. Prior to today’s 50, our last 50 in Duluth was on March 13th (high of 57)
Today’s highs and departure from normal for April 9th
Brainerd: 61 (+10 degrees above normal)
Ashland: 60 (+13 degrees above normal)
Duluth: 58 (+12 degrees above normal)
Hibbing: 56 (+10 degrees above normal)
International Falls: 48 (+1 degree above normal)
Rainfall Totals from April 7-8, 2024
Source: Minnesota DNR; National Weather Service Duluth, MN
Brainerd, MN: 0.90″
6 W Sandstone, MN: 0.84″
Superior, WI: 0.80″
7 ENE Brule, WI: 0.51″
Duluth Airport: 0.50″
Hibbing, MN: 0.43″
Brule, WI (Ranger Station) 0.26″
Ashland, WI: 0.18″
Leech Lake, MN: 0.17″
International Falls, MN: 0.06″
Cass Lake, MN: 0.02″
Here’s a look at the MRMS precipitation analysis over the last 72 hours ending 8 AM Tuesday.
A severe thunderstorm outbreak is expected Wednesday across parts of the central Gulf Coast states.
Potential hazards include several tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+), and widespread damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging.
The hatched area on the map below indicates >10% probability of a significant tornado (EF2+)
It’s been a cool stretch as of late with below average temperatures anywhere you see green on the map below, while areas in orange represent where average temperatures were above normal from March 17th to April 8th.
Average Temperatures and Departure from Normal in the Northland from March 17 to April 8, 2024.
2 S Tower, MN: 23.2 degrees, -5.3 degrees below normal
Embarrass, MN: 24.1 degrees, -3.8 degrees below normal
International Falls, MN: 25.6 degrees, -4.0 degrees below normal
Hibbing, MN: 26.2 degrees, -3.1 degrees below normal
Duluth, MN: 28.7 degrees, -3.1 degrees below normal
Two Harbors, MN: 29.5 degrees, -3.3 degrees below normal
Brainerd, MN: 30.6 degrees, -3.6 degrees below normal
Thanks for reading!
Tim